There has been a tremendous amount of “early hope” surrounding the 2009 San Francisco Giants, cloaking a somber reality.
As much as we all are hoping for a prolonged pennant-sniffing run for this like able bunch, we must be realists.
The blueprint exists for a dreadful 100-loss season.
I’m pulling for this team to hit, field, and pitch at the highest possible level and I have a lot invested in this team personally and professionally. That said, the possible shortcomings need to be recognized.
Here then are the Top 10 reasons the Giants will lose 100 games. Each of these items is worth 10 losses (plus/minus 2) and all are potential scenarios that we must be prepared to face as the summer unfolds.
1. TIM LINCECUM LETDOWN
It would be nice if the reigning Cy Young award winner could replicate last season’s success but that’s not likely. Even if he has a solid year, the threat of the Verducci Effect is real.
2. THE BIG MILESTONE
Randy Johnson is two bad starts in and still an eternity from the magic 300 win plateau. Hard to win when you get knocked around and they’ll trot him out all year in search of the hallowed milestone.
3. 126 MILLION REGRETS
Full disclosure here, I’m a fan of Barry Zito. A good guy and a philanthropist. He just can’t get outs consistently. Already “demoted” to the #4 slot you have to wonder what happens next if he keeps getting shelled?
4. EDGAR’S INTEREST
Off to a terrible start at the plate, he has shown defensive malaise as well. With a two-year deal intact, can’t see him over-exerting in August.
5. YOUNG GUNS GET SOME
As the season slips and slides down and down, the team will turn to the young stars to get some experience. Buster Posey and Madison Baumgarner lead the charge as wins no longer matter.
6. CATCHING A COLD
The best example of a Gamer is Benjie Molina but he’s the only catcher on the squad right now. He’s already getting nicked up and could be in for a long year.
7. STUFF BUT NO STUFF
Current fifth-starter Jonathon Sanchez has been a letdown. He’s got electric stuff but struggles to win.
8. DIMINISHING DEFENSE
Renteria is a big downgrade defensively at shortstop and Pablo Sandoval has a long way to go at third base. Eugenio Velez is atrocious off the bench and this turns close games into losses.
9. BETTER WEST
Even after just a handful of games, the NL West is looking far better than most experts thought. The Padres have already demonstrated that they’re at least competitive and Arizona and the Dodgers are superior.
10. POWER OUTAGE
In order to avoid protracted losing streaks, it helps to have the threat of the long ball. This Giants team will not have a 20-homer player nor will it hit 100 as a team. Yikes.
Full disclosure. I am a huge Giants fan and have been for many years. I cannot argue with any of your points as they are all valid. I will continue to support and hope for better things in the future. They do have some very good young talent and I think Lincecum will come back but they have too many big contracts on people who are simply average, or below average.
By the way, I really enjoy reading your blogs, they are very informative and interesting. Also, has anyone ever told you that you look a bit like Jeff Burton the NASCAR driver?
Full disclosure, I am a Dodger fan! I love to see this kind of stuff! Great work on the blog, I am adding the feed now!
dan dibley is a boob
This is great…Go Dodgers. Do not hate on Gary talking Dodgers.
There are some great pieces that the giants have:
1) Linecum is a stud
2) B Willy is solid
3) Busta Pose–y in San Jo (hopefully)
4) Da’ Rican behind the plate
Here are some fixes that should avert a 100-loss disaster:
Employing Burriss over Frandsen is a move designed to shore up defense, but allows another well-below average bat to be in the lineup. Frandsen, I think, would be a league average defensive 2B with a slightly above-average bat. Demote Burriss, allow him to play everyday at SS and learn better plate discipline; promote Frandsen and allow him to play everyday.
Also, promote Dallas McPherson and let him play 3B. He’ll give you power and great defense. That’ll turn Sandoval into a Bill Hall-esque super utility man who’s able to play five days a week at 1B, 3B and C.
Get rid of Eugenio Velez! He’s a 27 year old not-really-a-prospect and is the definition of a replacement level player. According to Fangraphs, he was worth -$600K in 2008 in only 98 games and 292PA!
Dibs, did you seriously get more negative during an off day? Sanchez is a disappointment through one start this year? Give him a chance this year. Do you really think the Padres are as good as their record? They are not. They’ll come back to Earth and the Giants will rise up a bit. The Red Sox are 2-6 as well- and while I’m not comparing them directly to the Giants, wait until mid-May to start freaking out.
jburke is the BOOB!!! and may continue to support a giants leadership who spits in the face of devoted fans by doing nothing in the offseason to help the teams fate,…. until the giants get a front office with half a brain,.. you will continue to see dale jr. like results all summer long!!!! god bless dan dibley and god help jburke.
Dan, your article is right I am sad to say. I just wish the front office would go ahead and take a chance on the young players. What can they lose? I tell you what the Giants will lose is the fan support they need this year and coming years.
I know the pundits say Buster Posey needs experience catching and hitting at the big league level. Maybe if he plays in the minors for 20 years he will be hitting 1000%. And he will be a little more mature. Seriously?
This past week has not benn too shabby for Buster. He has hit 26-12, for a .462 average, 3 HRs, 7 RBI,7 runs scored, and stolen a couple of bases. He has hit safely in all 7 games.
Dibs. Why did we all (and by all I mean everyone at KNBR + me) drink the kool-aid during spring training? Are Bochy and Sabean done?
WHY DOES EVERYONE ALWAYS SPELL BUMGARNER’S NAME WRONG?!?! Sorry, but that’s the one thing that stood out to me the most.
And maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t quite agree with this. I think Tim Lincecum is just off to a bad start and will soon be back to Cy Young form. Sure, Randy Johnson is kind of old, but I don’t think he’s declined enough to get us 10 losses on his own - his first start actually seemed pretty good to me. The Bengie-as-the-only-catcher thing seems to be only temporary, since we have so many off-days this month. And I agree with Tony B. that you have to give Sanchez more of a chance, and the Padres are definitely not a first-place-caliber team. I do agree with you, though, about Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria, and Eugenio Velez. :/ But I still don’t think we’re so bad that we’ll lose 100 games.
I would say you’re an optimist.
[...] the formula for 100 I laid out is looking pretty cogent in the early going. [...]
I don’t think there’s another GM/Manager combo in baseball that engenders less faith from a fanbase than Brian Sabean/Bruce Bochy. Jocketty/Dusty and Dayton Moore/Trey Hillman come close, but I’d say ‘Sabes & Boch’ probably win the prize.
Sabean’s track record is bipolar — really f’n awesome from ‘97-’02 and really dreadful from ‘03-present. He’s been somewhat competent in the last twelve months with smart, low-risk signings (Renteria included) and great drafting. But when you chalk up the albatross contracts of Zito, Rowand and Dave Roberts, the draft-killing signings of Benitez, Alou, Michael Tucker and Mike Matheny, and the dearth of high-OBP or high-SLG hitters in the upper minors, the idea of Brian Sabean is hard to stomach.
As far as Bochy is concerned, he’s your prototypical old-school manager. His impulses are typically bad — “Let’s bunt a lot”; manage the bullpen by the save rule; “I really don’t understand the value of defense or OBP for that matter” — but won’t kill a team (a la Dusty Baker). When the managers interviews are ‘blah’ (understatement) and the team’s talent level is ‘bleh’ and the results are ‘yuck’, there’s not too much to get excited about.
I’m glad I’m not a Giants fan. :o)
[...] I laid out a scenario for the Giants to lose 100 games I saw the potential that this team had. I just didn’t think all the question marks would turn [...]
Wow you nailed this one, just like the Denver forcing game 7 against the eventual World Champion Lakers. The Giants are good and will be scary next year if they get some hitting. Being a HUGE DODGER FAN (in more than one way), I wish you were right, but this group of Giants is pesky. I hate them, but you have to give credit where credit is due…BOCHY and the scouts. Great job Giants, but I still hope you all burn!!!
Great news, Dodgers just tied up the Giants and knocked out LinceCUM.